by George P. Nassos
The rapid growth of the world population has had a major influence on the decline of our environment, particularly with the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG), the overconsumption of our natural resources, and the decline in quality and quantity of freshwater. What has really happened with our population?
During the time of Jesus Christ, the world population is estimated to have been 170-300 million people. It reached one billion people around 1804 and two billion in 1927. But then it really started to grow more rapidly, reaching eight billion in 2022. Another way to look at it is that we have quadrupled the population in just the last 95 years, and we are growing at a rate of about 10 million people every six to seven weeks. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs projects that the global population will grow to 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Can the earth really handle this kind of population growth?
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich wrote a book “The Population Bomb” in which he predicted that the earth cannot handle more than 1.5 to 2.0 billion people. About 50 years later, he admitted that he had made some wrong assumptions, but he still believed the there would be a collapse. This was probably analogous to St. Mathew Island in the Bering Sea when an experiment was initiated in 1944 and ended in 1966. The U.S. Coast Guard placed 29 reindeer on the island which had no predators and the natural resources to feed 1500-2000 reindeer. The population increased to 6,000 by 1963 but collapsed to 42 just three years later primarily due to disease and starvation. The reindeer population had exceeded the carrying capacity of the island.
If we consider the findings of the Global Footprint Network, we may be heading in a similar direction. Current data indicate that globally we are consuming natural resources equal to that of 1.7 earths. Earth Overshoot Day, the day in the year when we will have consumed all the natural resources that will be generated in that calendar year, will be August 1 for 2024. As the population continues to increase, consumption will also increase while the land to produce these resources may decrease.
God created this earth for our benefit, and consequently He will not let anything happen that will result in the duplication of St. Mathew Island. What are His plans? We don’t know but it seems there are two alternatives. One is that a global infection will be created that will kill many people worldwide like Spanish Flu which killed as many as 100 million (5% of the population) in 1918-1920. Something similar could reduce the world population to a more manageable size given the natural resources available. This is very unlikely although God did something similar recently by sending us a message.
In 2020, most of the world was exposed to Covid-19 which resulted in many people getting sick, many people dying, businesses being affected, people losing their jobs, etc. But there were four positive outcomes from Covid-19, all environmental. Climate change improved considerably because people weren’t traveling, and energy consumption decreased. The consumption of natural resources decreased, and Earth Overshoot Day went to about three weeks later in the year. Consumption of our freshwater decreased primarily from less industrial use including less energy demand resulting in less steam demand. And of course, the population growth slowed down as there was less dating and young married couples were debating whether to raise children in this declining environment. I consider Covid-19 a message from God telling us that we can still have a good life without destroying the environment.
Rather than having a major reduction in the population, the more acceptable option is to slow down population growth to meet the future availability of natural resources, and eventually go to zero growth. This appears to be the right path, and it is starting to happen.
The fertility rate in the U.S. is currently 1.62 babies per woman, down from 2.12 in 2007 with 2.1 being the fertility rate needed to keep the population constant. In Europe, the average birth rate is now 1.5 while in East Asia it is 1.2 and in Latin America it is 1.9. The world’s lowest fertility rate is 0.72 in South Korea. To slow the population growth in China, the Communist Party imposed a one-child policy in the 1970s. Even though it was scrapped in 2015, a one-child family has become the cultural norm in China. As a result, the China population dipped by over 2 million last year. To compensate for these major population decreases, the African countries have a fertility rate of 4.3. If it continues, by 2050 one in four people on the planet will be living in Africa.
According to a study at the University of Washington, the population is expected to peak at about 9.5 billion in 2061. If accurate, it means that all we need to do is prepare for an additional 1.4 billion people on this earth. With the new technologies that have been developed and with the help of A.I., we should be able to handle it – thanks to God’s plan.